WHAT a final day of the home and away season it’s going to be.
Geelong was confirmed as minor premier after thumping West Coast, but the coveted double chance – and one more top-eight spot – is still up for grabs.
The Cats and Melbourne are guaranteed to finish in the top four, while Sydney, Collingwood and Fremantle all still hold hope.
LADDER PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
Fremantle will hope at least one of the Swans or Magpies lose on Sunday to finish top four. Sunday will be huge; the Western Bulldogs’ finals push will continue against Hawthorn, Carlton and Collingwood will renew their rivalry bidding for a top-eight and top-four spot respectively, and Sydney will face St Kilda with the Swans aiming for second spot and the Saints needing a lot to go their way to sneak into the eight.
Here is your one-stop shop for all the permutations for your side over the weekend.
Friday, August 19
– The Demons sealed a top-four finish
– The 58-point margin means Sydney must make up 2.2 per cent against St Kilda on Sunday to replace Melbourne in second spot, needing to win by a similar margin to the Dees
– The Lions will finish fifth if the Blues win or sixth if the Magpies win
Saturday, August 20
– The Dockers have moved into third spot, at least until Sunday
– A defeat for either Sydney or Collingwood on Sunday will guarantee the Dockers finish in the top four. Even a draw between the Magpies and Blues would be enough to secure a top-four spot given the Dockers have a superior percentage (117) to Collingwood (104.4) heading into the final round
– If both the Pies and Swans win, Freo will finish fifth and host either Carlton or the Western Bulldogs in an elimination final
– Geelong finishes the season in top spot, two wins clear of the rest of the competition
– Geelong will next play a qualifying final against either Collingwood (if both Sydney and the Pies win on Sunday), Fremantle (if either Sydney or Collingwood lose on Sunday) or the Swans (if both Sydney and Collingwood lose on Sunday)
– Richmond has locked in seventh spot, so no matter how results fall on Sunday the Tigers won’t be moving anywhere
– If Carlton wins against Collingwood, the Tigers will have a massive elimination final against the Pies at the MCG
– If Collingwood wins it will send Richmond to the Gabba to face Brisbane in the first week of September
Sunday, August 21
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium, 1.10pm AEST
If the Hawks win
– The Bulldogs will miss the eight and the Blues will likely make it even if they are beaten by Collingwood, with Carlton’s percentage (108.8) far better than St Kilda’s (100.1) heading into the final round. The Saints would need to win by 70 points and see the Blues lose by just as much to overtake them
If the Bulldogs win
– They are almost certain to finish eighth as long as the Blues lose to the Pies. The percentage gap (0.9) between the Western Bulldogs and Carlton is minimal ahead of round 23
– If they finish eighth, they will play one of Fremantle, Brisbane or Sydney
Carlton v Collingwood at the MCG, 3.20pm AEST
If the Blues win
– They will finish eighth and play finals for the first time since 2013
– The Pies will miss the top four and will finish sixth and play Richmond in an elimination final
If the Magpies win
– a top-four spot is sealed, but they will finish fourth and play Geelong in a qualifying final if the Swans beat St Kilda. If the Swans lose, Collingwood will face Melbourne
St Kilda v Sydney at Marvel Stadium, 4.40pm AEST
If the Saints win
– They need it to be by a big margin, and they require the Blues to lose by a substantial margin against the Pies, and for the Dogs to go down to the Hawks. St Kilda (100.1) has a far lower percentage than both Carlton (108.8) and the Western Bulldogs (107.9). The margins for a Saints win and Blues loss needs to total around 140 points in order for the Saints to steal eighth spot
– A St Kilda win could cost the Swans a top-four spot, unless Collingwood also loses. After Brisbane’s heavy loss to Melbourne on Friday night saw its percentage fall to 119.3, the Swans (128.3) will not finish lower than fifth
If the Swans win
– A top-four spot is sealed
– The margin of victory will be important after the Demons’ win over the Lions on Friday night. Sydney needs to roughly match Melbourne’s 58-point win to finish second and host a qualifying final