THE UNPREDICTABILITY of rookie scores is in full swing at the moment and some of the seven-gamers are looking like they would benefit from a rest.
Strategically, we need to be picking them off one by one with traditional downgrade/upgrade trades, ideally looking to bring in an underpriced premium. We are basically at a stage in the season where we are playing a game within the game as coaches race to remove rookies from the ground.
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It is also the time where we need to have a look at our bye structure to ensure we have a good balance of players across the three-week period to ensure our teams not only remain competitive, but also improve over that time. At the least, use the byes as a guide to split 50-50 decisions.
MOST TRADED IN
- Greg Clark (MID, $250,000)
- Josh Carroll (MID, $234,000)
- Patrick Cripps (MID, $831,000)
- Touk Miller (MID, $885,000)
- Luke Parker (MID/FWD, $760,000)
MOST TRADED OUT
- Jason Horne-Francis (MID, $513,000)
- Josh Rachele (FWD/MID, $472,000)
- Josh Hayes (RUC/FWD, $408,000)
- Josh Ward (MID, $406,000)
- Tristan Xerri (RUC/FWD, $523,000)
TOP FIVE PRICE RISES
- Braydon Preuss (RUC, $599,000) +$63,000
- Greg Clark (MID, $250,000) +$60,000
- Robbie McComb (MID, $265,000) +$55,000
- Tom Lynch (FWD, $520,000) +$54,000
- Max Gawn (RUC, $953,000) +$48,000
TOP FIVE PRICE FALLS
- Daniel Howe (MID, $560,000) -$64
- Joe Daniher (FWD, $573,000) -$56
- Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD, $621,000) -$51
- Xavier Duursma (MID, $480,000) -$50,000
- Dayne Rampe (DEF, $359,000) -$50,000
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- Greg Clark (MID, $250,000) – 31
- Robbie McComb (MID, $265,000) – 18
- Josh Carroll (MID, $234,000) -16
- Maurice Rioli (MID/FWD, $226,000) – 10
- Cooper Hamilton (FWD/MID, $218,000) – 2
- Christian Salem (DEF, $717,000) 161
- Aaron Hall (DEF, $818,000) 155
- Kyle Langford (MID, $667,000) 151
- Andrew Brayshaw (MID, $950,000) 146
- Tim Taranto (FWD/MID, $844,000) 142
The Swans star has hit top form and is a bargain as a result. He is averaging an impressive 112 in his past three games which included 119 on the weekend and he has a BE of just 75. The fact he can be selected as a forward increases his value further, especially considering he attended 24 centre bounces against the Lions and is clearly playing predominately midfield.
It was a long-awaited but impressive debut from the mature-age Eagle, arguably finishing the game as their best player. His price increased a whopping $60k following a performance that included 24 possessions, seven marks and six tackles for an amazing score of 110. He enters next round with a breakeven of negative 31, making him a must-have cash cow.
The hard-working Sun appears to be over his form slump and given his breakeven of 95, he has bottomed out in price. After an uncharacteristic three-week stretch of not reaching triple figures where he barely laid a tackle, he has registered eight and six, respectively, over the past two weeks, while returning scores of 111 and 140. That’s more like the Touk we know and love.
Also consider: Clayton Oliver, Patrick Cripps, James Sicily.
The young Giant is in the middle of a breakout season and has produced some outstanding scores including four hundreds, topped by an impressive 133. In the past four weeks he has only managed triple figures on one occasion and was quiet on the weekend, recording a season-low of just 74. The Giants have been throwing magnets around, he will be fine once it settles.
The hard-working Saint started the year in scintillating fashion, dominating in a midfield role where he recorded a low of 93 in the first five rounds. He has since moved primarily back into defence where he has still been solid, but not outstanding, with scores of 84 and 80. He is still winning plenty of the ball and is capable of triple-figure scores as a defender.
The former Pies ball magnet has been solid, without reaching the outstanding heights we have seen from him in the past. He is averaging a respectable 92 for a forward, but his score of just 78 on the weekend leaves a sour taste. He has some nice match-ups leading into his bye and will repay the faith to hold.
Also consider: Jordan DeGoey, Zak Butters, Daniel Rioli.
The Cats star had a lot of hype during the pre-season given his forward eligibility and long history of being an elite scorer with an impressive ceiling. Unfortunately, we have not seen evidence of that to date with a top score of 90 in his six games. His marking game is still there but a number of other key stats are down, as we saw on the weekend with just 19 possessions and 69 points.
The No.1 pick has been a great servant, averaging 68 points over the first seven rounds and increasing in value by $223k. It is time to go, however, following his score of 52 which included just one mark and one tackle. He has a breakeven of 68 and a downgrade to Greg Clark looks a great option, allowing you to upgrade in another position with the cash generated.
There is certainly no reason to rush into trading the talented Pies ball magnet, after all, he is averaging 87 and available in our backline. If, however, you can move him to a top-line premium, it’s hard to say no after he has averaged 72 across his last three. He has a breakeven of 87 following his season-low 59 and is rumoured to be managed at some stage.
Also consider: Josh Rachele, Will Brodie, Jake Bowey.
YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Both great options mate, so I would split these two by value and take Touk.
I love the idea of Laird as a POD, but Crippa is still the value premium of the competition.
I feel like after the byes is the time to take a few players on. Players like Neale and Crippa need to be there.
I am not going to tell you anything you don’t know… It’s a high-risk, high-reward play. He’s a gun and if he has a good run with his body it will be a great move.
He has looked great for a number of weeks, so yes, he deserves consideration. I don’t like that he plays for a low-ranked team.
Both outstanding options. Parker is amazing value and would leave you some cash to play with next week.
Although I am not a big fan of the double downgrade, given your situation and the quality cash cows available this round I think it is in play.
I would be happy with trading either to get Crippa. Personally, Daicos would be my first to go, only because Brodie has had more years in the system so fatigue should not be an issue… (Check Brodie’s TOG and face palms). He definitely won’t be fatiguing, he hardly plays.